[经济学人] Trade: Hunker down

Trade
贸易

Hunker down
拒不停战
America’s tariffs on China have several goals—some of them unachievable
美国对华加征关税有多个目标，但其中一些无法实现

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IN HIS trade war with China, President Donald Trump appears to have the upper hand. The new tariffs his administration unveiled this week, which will raise the share of Chinese imports subject to levies to at least 44%, are unlikely to dampen America’s sizzling economy, or to boost inflation by much. Though some firms will be disrupted, most Americans will not notice the damage. China, however, is under pressure. Its growth seems to be slowing and its stockmarket is down almost a quarter from its peak in January. China’s government has announced retaliatory tariffs against American goods, but it is fast running out of imports to tax.

在与中国开打的贸易战中，特朗普似乎正占据上风。其政府上周公布了新一轮关税方案，入美中国商品被征税的比例将至少提高到44％，这不太可能挫伤美国当前火热的经济或大幅推高通胀。虽然有些公司会受影响，但大多数美国人不会感觉到损害。中国则在承受压力。其增长似乎正在放缓，股市相比1月份的峰值下跌了近四分之一。中国政府已宣布对美国商品实施报复性关税，但可征税的美国进口商品数量不断减少，很快将征无可征。

During conflict, an imbalance in strength should lead to a swift resolution. Here the side with the advantage may prolong the war. That is because America has several goals, some of them unachievable.

在一般冲突中，双方势力不均的结果本应是速战速决。但在这场贸易战里，占优势的一方可能会延长战事。那是因为美国有几个目标，而其中一些是无法实现的。

Unjust war
不公之战

The official justification for the tariffs is rooted in anger about Chinese mercantilism—anger which is shared across the rich world. China gives vast and opaque subsidies to its state-owned firms. It requires exporters to hand over intellectual property as a condition of access to its market. The world’s consumers benefit from the artificially cheap imports that result. But trade of this sort is unsustainable, politically and economically. America is right to demand that China play fair.

美国加征关税的官方理由植根于对中国重商主义的愤怒，其他富裕国家对此也是怒火中烧。中国向本国国有企业提供大量不透明补贴，又要求别国出口商交出知识产权作为进入中国市场的条件。这些人为干预使得中国出口商品价格低廉，全球消费者从中受惠。但这种贸易在政治和经济上都不可持续。美国要求中国公平竞争无可厚非。

That is not the limit of Mr Trump’s ambition, however. He also wants to eliminate America’s trade deficit with China, which he mistakenly sees as a transfer of wealth. He has broadcast his desire to force manufacturing supply chains back to America. And his administration has identified China as a strategic competitor. Some of the president’s advisers seem to relish the chance to do it economic harm.

然而，特朗普的野心不尽于此。他还想消除美国对华贸易逆差，他误以为这是一种财富转移。他意欲迫使制造业供应链回岸美国的心愿已是广昭天下。此外，其政府已认定中国为战略竞争对手。特朗普的一些顾问似乎乐见中国经济受挫。

The White House may argue that China’s abuse of the rules, the trade deficit and the decline of American industry are one and the same. They are not. Even without subsidies, China, like most other emerging markets, would enjoy a substantial cost advantage over America. The trade deficit, meanwhile, is tied to the difference between domestic saving and investment. Tariffs might cut the bilateral deficit with China, but America would find it nearly impossible to shrink its overall deficit without engineering a domestic recession.

白宫可能会辩解说，中国践踏规则、美国对华贸易逆差以及美国工业的衰落都是一回事。但事实并非如此。即使没有补贴，中国也和其他大多数新兴市场一样，相较于美国具有相当大的成本优势。同时，贸易逆差与国内储蓄和投资之差存在紧密联系。加征关税也许会缩减美国对华双边贸易赤字，但美国会发现，除非设计一场国内衰退，否则缩减整体赤字近乎不可能。

The goal of rolling back decades of American deindustrialisation is a pipe-dream. Should America succeed in forcing supply chains back onshore, it will find that many fewer jobs are attached, because of rapid automation and productivity growth. American manufacturing’s share of GDP has fallen only by a fifth since 2000, while its share of employment is down by a third. Besides, the lowest-skilled jobs would not go to America, but to low-wage Asian countries, like Vietnam.

要逆转美国数十年的去工业化进程如同白日做梦。即便美国成功迫使供应链回迁，由于快速自动化和生产率提高，一同带回的就业机会将大大减少。自2000年以来，美国制造业产出占GDP的比例仅下降了五分之一，但占总就业比例却下降了三分之一。此外，那些技能要求最低的工作不会流向美国，而是流向低工资的亚洲国家，如越南。

There is a faint hope that Mr Trump’s advisers and allies will play good cop to his bad cop, using tariffs as a bargaining chip in rewriting global trading rules to constrain China’s mercantilism—a legitimate goal. More probably, the bad cop—who is, after all, in charge—will refuse to be stood down, because of his obsession with trade deficits and jobs and because Chinese leaders seem unwilling or unable to contemplate reforms that would strengthen moderate voices in Team Trump.

尚存的一线希望是在特朗普唱黑脸时，他的顾问和盟友会唱白脸，以关税为筹码来改写全球贸易规则，制约中国的重商主义——一个正当合理的目标。但掌权的毕竟是唱黑脸的那位，所以更可能出现的情形是特朗普拒绝让步，执着于扳回贸易逆差，夺回就业岗位，而且中国领导人似乎不愿意或无法考虑推行改革措施来壮大特朗普阵营中温和派的声音。

The prospects for any truce with China look grim. Recent history suggests that trade disputes are hard to settle. Tariffs imposed on Chinese tyres in 2009 under President Barack Obama, a free-trader, lasted three years. Mr Trump’s recent trade agreement with Mexico does not include an end to levies on its steel and aluminium. America’s latest escalation against China is no more likely to be speedily reversed.

与中国休战的希望渺茫。近年历史表明，贸易争端难以解决。主张自由贸易的美国前总统奥巴马在2009年对中国轮胎征收关税，持续了三年。特朗普最近与墨西哥达成的贸易协议并未包括停止对其钢铁和铝材征税。美国新近对中国贸易制裁措施的升级同样不太可能迅速逆转。

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